Stochastic Rainfall Downscaling of Climate Models

Prediction of Rainfall under HadCM3 and CanESM2 Climate Change Models using Statistical Downscaling Model (Case Study: Tabriz Synoptic Station)

Global climate change as a main factor affecting all ecological components, has been attended by researchers all over the world in the recent years. In this regard for simulating the rainfall, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data, HadCM3 data under A2 and B2 scenarios, CanESM2 data under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were utilized. This research was performed by adopt...

Meteorological uncertainty and rainfall downscaling

We explore the sources of forecast uncertainty in a mixed dynamical-stochastic ensemble prediction chain for small-scale precipitation, suitable for hydrological applications. To this end, we apply the stochastic downscaling method RainFARM to each member of ensemble limitedarea forecasts provided by the COSMO-LEPS system. Aim of the work is to quantitatively compare the relative weights of the...

Stochastic Climate Models

The field of climate physics is devoted to the study of the climate system as a dynamical system, that is, to the study of its spatial and temporal variability. By climate system, we refer to that tightly-coupled collection of subsystems composed of the atmosphere, the ocean, the cryosphere (icy regions), the lithosphere (land), and the biosphere (life). This system is not closed: external forc...

Parameter estimation in stochastic rainfall-runoff models

A parameter estimation method for stochastic rainfall-runoff models is presented. The model considered in the paper is a conceptual stochastic model, formulated in continuous-discrete state space form. The model is small and a fully automatic optimization is, therefore, possible for estimating all the parameters, including the noise terms. The parameter estimation method is a maximum likelihood...

Downscaling Climate Models: Sharpening the Focus on Local-Level Changes